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Oil and the
aftermath of Iraq

 

Following Nigeria's PDP landslide victory in the general elections, Corporate Africa met up with Dr. Rilwanu Lukman - Nigeria's Presidential Adviser on Petroleum and Energy - to discuss the role of OPEC in the post-war economic and political climate.

 


Dr Lukman, you are one of a succession of OPEC leaders who have presided over the strengthening of relations between the OPEC economies and those of the northern consumer nations. You have also worked to attract FDI into Africa's petroleum economies. What more do you hope can be achieved in the coming years?
 


Well, the situation in Iraq, though unfortunate, entails the rehabilitation of whatever oilfields are affected by the war. I believe that sanctions will be removed but it will, however, take some time for Iraq to realize its full potential. In the meantime, OPEC is ready to meet any shortfalls. Added to that, the social disintegration and political instability you talkabout did not, and has never,


Your question rather flatters me in the sense that I consider my achievements quite modest, as far as my involvement and service within OPEC are concerned. However, I have always believed that OPEC as an organization, comprising member countries who generate wealth through their natural resource of oil, should be able to strike a balance between ensuring an appropriate pricing for what they produce vis-à-vis what the northern consumer nations must continue to pay to secure this commodity for their energy requirements. In this regard, I hope to continue to work towards maintaining this critical balance so that neither the economies of the OPEC producers, or the northern consumer nations, will suffer unnecessarily as a result of high oil prices.

In December 2002, you expressed your sadness over the political situation in Iraq

 


We have always had it at the back of our minds that oil is an exhaustible natural resource.


 

had any significant effect on the oil production situation in Algeria and Angola.

Algeria continues to remain a very strong member of OPEC in Africa, in terms of meeting its production quota, and could even cope with an increased allocation. Angola on the other hand, though not in OPEC, has continued to produce oil and is a founding, and very strong member, of the African Petroleum Producers Association (APPA).

What is being done to ensure that steady, secure supplies of oil will be maintained as you assured consumers they would be? How can "war premiums" be avoided?

You will have noticed that there was a rise in the price of oil prior to the run-up to the war because of speculation. People felt that oil installations would be damaged as a result of the war, thus taking

- a founding member, to whom OPEC owes much of its succes. What impact will the aftermath of war in the Middle East have upon the global economy in general, and especially upon petroleum economies in Africa, like Nigeria, Algeria and Angola? Some of these countries have significant Muslim populations, and Angola is only just recovering from social disintegration and political instability.

 

Iraqi oil out of the market - in other words, there would be "war premiums." Well, the war is now over and no significant damage was done to Iraqi oil installations. Therefore "war premiums" are off. As an addition to your question, and as I stated earlier, most OPEC member countries, including Nigeria, possess the capacity in terms of reserves, to meet any shortfall in production quotas, at any time.


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